Decision Framer

Prompt Refiner

Turns a vague request into an executable brief without silently inventing missing requirements.

Meeting to Actions

Converts messy notes into decisions, owned actions, deadlines and unresolved questions.

Calibrated Forecasting

Turn a vague prediction or unstated confidence level into an explicit, calibrated probability estimate, following the practices Philip Tetlock found separated "superforecasters" from everyone else — breaking questions into sub-questions, checking base rates, updating in small increments as new information arrives, and tracking predictions against outcomes.

Decision Memo

Structure a real, consequential decision as a written narrative memo in the style Jeff Bezos used at Amazon — full sentences and paragraphs rather than bullet points, forcing the logic to be checked rather than gestured at, plus explicit classification of whether the decision is reversible (a "two-way door") or not (a "one-way door").

Feynman Teachback

Test and build genuine understanding of a concept using the Feynman technique — explain it as simply as possible, notice exactly where the simple explanation breaks down, and treat that break point as the thing to actually go learn.

First Principles

Rebuild a problem from fundamental truths (physics, economics, unit costs, what's actually true regardless of convention) rather than by analogy to how things are normally done — the reasoning style associated with Elon Musk's approach to manufacturing cost problems and Richard Feynman's approach to physics problems.

Focus and Tradeoffs

Cut a bloated plan, roadmap, or list of priorities down to the one or two things that actually matter, in the tradition associated with Steve Jobs's product focus — "innovation is saying no to a thousand things."

Jobs to Be Done

Diagnose what "job" a customer is actually hiring a product, service, or workaround to do, using the Jobs-to-be-Done framework (Clayton Christensen's "progress in a specific circumstance," Bob Moesta's forces-of-progress and switch interview, Tony Ulwick's job statements and desired-outcome scoring).

Mental Models

Apply Charlie Munger's "latticework" approach — a small set of cross-disciplinary thinking tools (inversion, second-order effects, incentives, circle of competence, opportunity cost, base rates) to frame a vague or general problem.

Moat Analysis

Assess whether a competitive advantage is durable (a real "moat," in Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger's terms) or temporary, by checking it against the standard sources of durable advantage — switching costs, network effects, economies of scale, brand/trust, and regulatory or IP protection — rather than taking "we're ahead right now" at face value.

Negotiation Prep

Prepare for a high-stakes negotiation or hard conversation using tactical-empathy techniques associated with former FBI negotiator Chris Voss — labeling emotions, calibrated open-ended questions, mirroring, and getting to genuine "that's right" rather than a grudging "yes."

Postmortem / Retro

Extract a specific, reusable lesson after something succeeded or failed, following the principle (associated with Ray Dalio's "pain plus reflection equals progress") that outcomes only compound into better judgment if they're deliberately converted into a written, checkable lesson rather than just felt and moved past.

Premortem

Run a premortem — psychologist Gary Klein's technique of imagining a plan has already failed and working backward to explain why, which surfaces risks that forward planning misses because it counteracts the social and psychological pressure to seem confident.