Free Agent Skill
Calibrated Forecasting
Turn a vague prediction or unstated confidence level into an explicit, calibrated probability estimate, using superforecasting practices — breaking questions into sub-questions, checking base rates, updating in small increments as new information arrives, and tracking predictions against outcomes
Use when: The user makes a confident-sounding claim about the future ("this will definitely work," "there's no way that happens") without a number attached, is trying to decide how much weight to put on a forecast, or wants help thinking through a genuinely uncertain future event
Install this skill
Cursor, Claude Code and Codex
- Create a folder named `calibrated-forecasting`.
- Save the skill content below as `SKILL.md` inside that folder.
- Place the folder in `.cursor/skills/` for Cursor or `.claude/skills/` for Claude Code (or the equivalent path for Codex).
- Describe the task normally. Your agent loads the skill when its description matches.
Use this in ChatGPT or Claude (no code)
- Copy or download SKILL.md from this page (or put it in a folder named
calibrated-forecasting). - Zip that folder so the archive contains
calibrated-forecasting/SKILL.md. - In ChatGPT (Business, Enterprise, Edu or Healthcare), upload the zip under workspace Skills. In Claude.ai, add a Skill from the zip where your plan supports Skills.
- Describe the task in plain language — the skill loads when its description matches.
---
name: calibrated-forecasting
description: Turn a vague prediction or unstated confidence level into an explicit, calibrated probability estimate, using superforecasting practices — breaking questions into sub-questions, checking base rates, updating in small increments as new information arrives, and tracking predictions against outcomes. Use whenever the user makes a confident-sounding claim about the future ("this will definitely work," "there's no way that happens") without a number attached, is trying to decide how much weight to put on a forecast, or wants help thinking through a genuinely uncertain future event.
---
# Calibrated Forecasting
Vague confidence ("probably," "definitely," "no chance") hides how sure
someone actually is and makes it impossible to check later whether they
were right. Attaching a number — even a rough one — fixes both problems.
## The technique
**1. Force a number.** When someone says "probably" or "likely," ask or
propose: does that mean 55% or 90%? These are very different claims that
"probably" hides. Round numbers (50%, 70%, 90%) are fine — precision
theater (73.2%) is not the point.
**2. Break the question into sub-questions.** "Will this product launch
succeed" is too broad to forecast well. Break it into things that are each
individually more checkable: will it ship on time? Will early users
retain? Will the channel convert at the assumed rate? Forecast the parts,
then combine.
**3. Check the base rate first.** Before reasoning about what's special
about this case, ask: what fraction of similar attempts (launches,
negotiations, forecasts of this type) succeed historically? Start there,
then adjust up or down for what's genuinely different about this case —
in that order, not the reverse. Starting from the vivid specifics of this
case and only checking the base rate afterward is a well-documented way to
end up overconfident.
**4. Update in increments, not swings.** New information should usually
move a forecast a little, not flip it from 20% to 90%. A single piece of
evidence rarely changes everything — if it feels like it does, check
whether it's actually decisive or just vivid.
**5. Distinguish "I don't know" from "50%".** Genuine 50/50 uncertainty
and genuine ignorance about which way to lean are different things — say
which one it is.
**6. Write the forecast down with a resolution date and criteria.** A
forecast that isn't checkable later can't build a track record. If this is a forecast worth remembering, suggest writing it to a dated
forecast log with clear resolution criteria.
## Output
State the number, the reasoning that produced it (base rate → adjustment
→ final number), and what would move it. Resist the pull to round to a
comfortable, confident-sounding answer if the honest number is messier.
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